Looking at the MLAs who will represent the three Saanich ridings in the upcoming session of the Legislature you could be forgiven for thinking that not much has changed since the election campaign began. But the political landscape beyond Saanich’s borders has seen a seismic shift since the writ was dropped on April 11.
The NDP’s Lana Popham returns as MLA in Saanich South, while Rob Fleming keeps Victoria-Swan Lake painted NDP orange and the Green Party’s Andrew Weaver is back in Oak Bay-Gordon Head. But the dust still hasn’t completely settled on who will be guiding the direction of the province over the next four years (or less).
As it currently sits, the BC Liberals will have 43 seats in the Legislature, compared to the NDP’s 41 and the three MLAs who will sit for the BC Green Party. If those results stand, it will bring about British Columbia’s first minority government since W.A.C. Bennett led the Social Credit to power in 1952.
But a lot remains to be settled. There are still thousands of absentee ballots that have not been counted, with the tabulation expected to take place between May 22 and 24. And with the NDP holding just a nine-vote lead over the Liberals in Courtenay-Comox, it’s clear that a lot can still change. And a shift of just 10 votes in that one riding would be enough to give the Liberals a majority (if everything else remains the same).
If the absentee ballots don’t translate to any changes to the current results, it leaves Weaver in the position of kingmaker (or queenmaker, as the case may be), holding the balance of power. The election campaign revealed there is a personal animosity between Weaver and NDP leader John Horgan. The question that remains is whether that animosity will obscure the deep policy differences that separate the Greens from Christy Clark’s Liberals.
But there is little doubt that Weaver and the Greens should be able to extract a number of concessions for their support in the Legislature. Electoral reform is sure to be at the top of the list, as a change in the first-past-the-post system will ensure a growing Green beachhead in elections to come.