Saanich’s population grew four per cent between 2011 and 2016, but its regional influence might be shrinking.
According to Statistics Canada figures, 114,148 people lived in Saanich in 2016, up from 109,752 in 2011.
While these figures confirm Saanich’s continuing status as the region’s most populous community ahead of the City of Victoria (85,792) and City of Langford (35,342), Saanich’s regional share of the population is declining.
Whereas Saanich accounted for 30.5 per cent of the population in the Capital Regional District (CRD) in 2011, this figure fell to 29.7 per cent in 2016.
This development is not surprising in light of local figures from other communities in the CRD. Its second-largest community – Victoria – grew by 7.2 per cent, while its third largest community – Langford – grew by 20.9 per cent.
Saanich, in short, is growing but failing to keep pace with the CRD, where the population grew by 6.5 per cent to 383,360 in 2016 from 359,991 in 2011.
Much of this growth has taken place outside the ‘core’ communities of Victoria and Saanich in suburban communities like Langford, a development that may also translate into additional political influence around the CRD table.
Reactions from Saanich councillors to these figures have varied.
Coun. Fred Haynes said these numbers are not surprising. “These figures are a direct result of land use planning in the region and Saanich these past [three] decades,” he said. “On one level, it is encouraging to see that population predictions are accurate. On another, it is disappointing to see that choices for affordable homes is pushing people farther out from the core area. Personally I believe more needs to be done on mechanisms in our municipality that will enable greater numbers of people to find homes closer to jobs in Saanich and the core.”
Haynes also worried whether these figures herald larger cultural and economic changes in the wrong direction.
“I think a greater concern for the next 10,15, 20 years is the lack of cultural vibrancy and socio-economic resilience Saanich will face if we are unable to re-imagine the community we currently are,” he said.
“A relative decline in population ratios brings more than just loss of tax base or political say. It can introduce a community stagnation as only the existing aging residents can afford to stay. Sustainable communities need regeneration of the population stock and this is linked to the opportunity for new arrivals finding suitable housing.”
Coun. Susan Brice said the numbers do not surprise her because they reflect developments that have been unfolding for more than a decade.
Land on the West Shore is cheaper and under-developed compared to land in Saanich, she said.
“Because land costs have been less expensive in the areas outside the core it’s only natural that many families have chosen to build in the area they can afford,” she said. “Housing that doesn’t require as much land per unit such as duplexes, townhouses, single detached housing and secondary suites are some of the options that we need to continue to support in Saanich to meet that affordability aspect of development.”
Brice, one of five Saanich directors on the 24-member-strong CRD board, also questioned the argument that Saanich will lose political influence as the West Shore communities see their populations rise relatively.
“Saanich will not lose any political influence at the CRD as our number of representatives remains the highest,” she said. “Experience shows that political impact and influence at a regional level is predicated on strong and influential CRD directors. The Saanich directors do not vote ‘as a block’ rather they take individual responsibility to examine each issue and use their influence to impact decision-making at the regional table.”
Coun. Dean Murdock largely agrees with Brice’s assessments. “Saanich remains the largest partner at the regional table, in terms of population and funding,” he said. “I think the key to our regional model is partnership and co-operation. Competing visions don’t serve anyone’s interests. We need to work collaboratively as partners. All [communities] in the CRD, big and small, have a stake in this region and its future.”
Looking at provincial and federal figures, British Columbia remains the most populous province in western Canada and third-most populous province overall with a population of about 4.65 million in 2016, up 5.6 per cent from 2011.
Canada has a whole had a population of 35.1 million in 2016, ten times the figure from 1871, when the first census after Confederation recorded 3.5 million.