Home buying affordability fades for millennials with new mortgage rule (with VIDEO)

Federal move slashes purchasing power of first time buyers by up to 20 per cent: economist




Millennials trying to buy their first homes face a dramatic hit to the amount they can borrow as a result of the federal government’s move to tighten mortgage qualification rules later this month.

That’s the warning from B.C. Real Estate Association chief economist Cameron Muir, who says the federal finance minister’s announcement Monday flies in the face of government efforts to improve housing affordability at the low end of the market.

“It’s going to have a dramatic impact on affordability for millennials,” Muir said. “As much as 20 per cent of their purchasing power has been eliminated. Many of them will be squeezed completely out of the marketplace.”

READ ALSO: Feds target housing market speculators

Effective Oct. 17, buyers with less than a 20 per cent down payment – most first time buyers – will need enough income to qualify at a higher benchmark interest rate posted by the Bank of Canada, even though their actual payments are based on the lower rate retail banks offer them.

Right now the gap between the two rates is around two per cent, so the rule is equivalent to a sudden interest rate spike of that amount for many buyers.

Muir said a couple with combined annual income of $80,000 and a five per cent down payment can currently buy a home priced at about $500,000.

“That’s going to fall to about $400,000,” he said. “That’s a $100,000 reduction in their purchasing power. That’s a substantial hit to affordability.”

It’s the sharpest government-imposed cut to what new home buyers can afford in years, he said, predicting millennials will bear the brunt.

“Unlike previous generations, their purchasing power has now been reduced through government policy.”

Finance Minister Bill Morneau unveiled the change as one of a series of measures to reduce risk in overheated housing markets.

Muir argued the mortgage qualification rule could have been phased in gradually.

“The shock over a number of years wouldn’t be the same shock we’re now going to see in the markets.”

He said the change threatens to have broader impacts, potentially triggering a drop in home construction activity, associated jobs and economic growth.

Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, said he expects some drop in sales to first time home buyers as a result.

First time buyers account for a larger proportion of sales in more affordable regions like the Fraser Valley and Okanagan – up to 35 per cent – compared to around 25 per cent near Vancouver.

Unlike the foreign buyer tax B.C. has imposed only in Metro Vancouver, Pastrick said the federal mortgage qualification change is “indiscriminate” and applies everywhere, even where overheated real estate has not been a problem.

“It will ripple out beyond the first-time home buyer market,” Pastrick said, adding existing owners seeking to sell or downsize are often dependent on a first-time buyer purchasing their home.

Pastrick is in the process of scaling down Central 1’s forecasts for real estate market and B.C. economic growth for 2017 as a result of the mortgage rule change.

He expects a five per cent decline in benchmark home prices over the next six to nine months, coupled with lower sales.

But Pastrick predicts the real estate market will stabilize over time, not collapse.

“Markets will adjust –this is not the beginning of the end of the cycle,” he said, citing the strong trends of growth for B.C.’s economy, jobs and population.

Just Posted

Harbour authority names dock for Victoria’s record-breaking sailor

Jeanne Socrates is the oldest person to sail around the world unaccompanied

Man who fell 50 feet shares his tale to raise funds for Victoria hospitals

Mitch Lapore helped launch the Victoria Hospital Foundation’s latest campaign

CRD hosts Saanich open house on solid waste management

Open house is Nov. 21, from 4 to 8 p.m. at the Saanich Greek Community Hall

Uncertainty continues to surround body found in Central Saanich

BC Coroners Service say the man in his 20s is from Victoria. His death remains under investigation

Muppet-topped motorcyclists hit the road for sick kids

Helmet Heads Canada collecting donations during Victoria Christmas parades

VIDEO: ‘Climate emergency’ is Oxford’s 2019 Word of the Year

Other words on the shortlist included ‘extinction,’ ‘climate denial’ and ‘eco-anxiety’

POLL: Do you plan on making any purchases on Black Friday?

We’ve all seen the images. Shoppers rioting outside of a store in… Continue reading

Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers wanted list for the week of Nov. 19

Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers is seeking the public’s help in locating the… Continue reading

Three cops investigated in connection to ex-Vancouver detective’s sexual misconduct

Fisher was convicted in 2018 after pleading guilty to kissing two young women who were witnesses in a criminal case

Violence response procedures updated for B.C. schools, police

ERASE program expands to target gangs, bullying of students

A pawsitive ending: Missing puppy found after nine-day search in Chilliwack

Pit bull Frankie ran from dog sitter booked through app

Federal laws at heart of West’s anger up for debate, as Liberals begin outreach

Vancouver mayor to Trudeau’s western critics: ‘Get over yourselves’

Snowboard pioneer Jake Burton Carpenter dies at 65

He was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 2011

Teen developed ‘popcorn lung’ due to vaping: Ontario doctors

Boy went from being in perfect health to being on life support after just five months

Most Read