Credit: Al Waters/Capital News

Credit: Al Waters/Capital News

Wilkinson surges, Watts sinks on social media as BC Liberals race heats up

Analyst says former favourite Dianne Watts has lost her lead in online engagement

  • Nov. 30, 2017 4:15 p.m.

For pundits and political analysts, party leadership races are difficult contests to predict. The most recent example is the 2017 federal NDP leadership race, won by Jagmeet Singh, a relative newcomer who was not on anyone’s radar. The BC Liberal leadership race, to be decided Feb. 3, is no exception: predicting a winner will be tricky, but there are new definitive ways to assess who is leading (p.s. – it’s not Dianne Watts).

Conventional wisdom among political watchers holds that Dianne Watts is the front-runner in the contest. Media commentators spend time analyzing speeches and trying to interpret the significance of each campaign stop. But social media metrics can reveal the state of the race and provide hard numbers on who is leading, and why.

The latest analysis from Social Media ROI, a social media and research firm based in Western Canada, indicates that former Surrey Mayor Diane Watts did hold a lead in social media “share of voice” and extent of media coverage in October and early November. But her lead has since evaporated.

VIDEO: BC Liberal leadership candidates fight to add warmth to ‘jobs’ message

Heralded as an outsider untainted by past Liberal government decisions, Watts is now trailing the ultimate insider: former BC Liberals president Andrew Wilkinson. Other high profile former ministers Mike De Jong and Todd Stone round out the top contenders, with Sam Sullivan and Michael Lee trailing well back in terms of profile and momentum.

SMROi’s analysis of the BC Liberal leadership race focuses on several indicators. The first is media exposure for each candidate, including both traditional and online impressions. Wilkinson leads all candidates in exposure, displacing Watts from her early campaign lead.

“Share of voice” is calculated by the proportion of mentions and the key words associated with each candidate. Wilkinson has recently taken the lead over Watts in terms of share of voice (38%). Watts, who led in October with a 35 per cent share of voice, has since dropped to a 21 per cent share. Stone is currently running third (20% share of voice), followed closely by de Jong, who has a smaller share of voice but commands a larger media presence than Stone. Lee and Sullivan are lagging well behind.

READ: BC Liberal leadership candidates debate different paths for party

The third indicator — the tone of each campaign — is measured by positive or negative sentiments being expressed. These can shift quickly, so they are one of the strongest predictors of ultimate victory. Current sentiment in BC toward Stone and de Jong is improving, while Watts and Wilkinson sentiment is declining.

The final indicator, “engagement,” is measured by the extent of interaction each candidate has with potential voters, including “sharing metrics” such as retweets and Facebook posts, and the gender profiles of followers. So far, the engagement data paints a mixed picture of the leadership race. Despite some emerging negative momentum for Watts and Wilkinson, they have an advantage over the other two major candidates, Stone and de Jong, because they currently have more female followers. Engaging women is vital to winning over the electorate, SMROI maintains.

Regardless of who wins, the leadership race has generated extensive media coverage and stimulated thousands of conversations, with an average of almost 500,000 impressions per day over the past month, peaking recently due to a leaders debate in Nanaimo (1.2 million impressions November 19). Most of those media impressions originated from the Vancouver area (61%), but there is also a strong media presence in areas where the party needs to make inroads if it is to stage a comeback, such as on Vancouver Island, including Victoria (18%) and Nanaimo (6%).

– Bruce Cameron, president, Social Media ROi


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Penny Hart is emotional outside the Saanich Police Department as she pleads for helpt to find her son Sean Hart last seen Nov. 6 at a health institution in Saanich. (Devon Bidal/News Staff)
UPDATED: Mother of missing Saanich man begs public to help find her son

Sean Hart last seen leaving Saanich mental health facility Nov. 6

Saanich Mayor Fred Haynes delivers the inaugural address at council’s swearing-in ceremony in November 2018. The ceremony included blessings from representatives of two Christian churches. (Black Press Media file photo)
Saanich Mayor Fred Haynes delivers the inaugural address at council’s swearing-in ceremony in November, 2018. The ceremony included blessings from representatives of two Christian churches – a fact highlighted in a report released by the BC Humanist Associaton on Tuesday. (Black Press Media file photo)
Christian-based prayer at inaugural Vancouver Island council meetings violates court ruling

Blessings violate Supreme Court decision that prayer in council is discriminatory

Karl Ablack, chair of the Port Renfrew Recovery Task Force, says visitors should steer clear of the community after the second wave of COVID has begun to hit across the province. (Black Press Media file photo)
Port Renfrew, Pacheedaht First Nation asks visitors to steer clear of community again

Tight-knit community of 400 has yet to report single case of COVID

The BCCDC has added WestJet flight 3349 on Nov. 23 to its flight exposure list. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan)
New COVID-19 exposure on WestJet flight from Edmonton to Victoria

The BCCDC has added WestJet flight 3349 on Nov. 23 to its flight exposure list

A man wearing a face mask to help curb the spread of COVID-19 walks in downtown Vancouver, B.C., Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020. The use of masks is mandatory in indoor public and retail spaces in the province. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
B.C. records deadliest day of pandemic with 13 deaths, 738 new COVID-19 cases

Number of people in hospital is nearing 300, while total cases near 30,000

Anyone with information on any of these individuals is asked to call 1-800-222-TIPS (8477) or visit the website victoriacrimestoppers.ca for more information.
Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers wanted list for the week of Nov. 24

Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers is seeking the public’s help in locating the… Continue reading

(AP Photo/Haven Daley)
POLL: Do you think the current COVID-19 restrictions should continue beyond Dec. 7?

One week into the new restrictions to curtail the spread of the… Continue reading

Port McNeill councillor Derek Koel busts a rap to help promote the town’s active transportation plan. (Facebook video screenshot)
VIDEO: Vancouver Island councillor makes rap video to promote active transportation plan

Active transportation is a personal matter for councillor Derek Koel.

FILE – A paramedic holds a test tube containing a blood sample during an antibody testing program at the Hollymore Ambulance Hub, in Birmingham, England, on Friday, June 5, 2020. (Simon Dawson/Pool via AP)
Want to know if you’ve had COVID-19? LifeLabs is offering an antibody test

Test costs $75 and is available in B.C. and Ontario

The grey region of this chart shows the growth of untraced infection, due to lack of information on potential sources. With added staff and reorganization, the gap is stabilized, Dr. Bonnie Henry says. (B.C. Centre for Disease Control)
B.C. adjusts COVID-19 tracing to keep up with surging cases

People now notified of test results by text message

People wear face masks as they pose next to a Christmas display in Montreal, Sunday, November 22, 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues in Canada and around the world. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes
How to tell family their Christmas gathering is too risky and you’re not going

Dr. Hurst says it’s best to frame the conversation from a place of care, stressing safety precautions.

Keanu Reeves in “The Matrix.”
Free ‘Hollywood Suite’ movies in December include ‘Keanussance’ titles starring Keanu Reeves

Also featured is the Israeli-made ‘Valley of Tears,’ a 10-part war drama

Most Read